WASHINGTON (AP) Five years after a global financial crisis erupted, the world's biggest economies still need to be propped up.
They're growing and hiring a little faster and creating more jobs,
but only with extraordinary aid from central banks or government
spending. And economists say major countries may need help for years
more.
From the United States to Europe to Japan, central banks are pumping
cash into economies and keeping loan rates near record lows. Even
fast-growing China has rebounded from an uncharacteristic slump with the
help of government money that's poured into projects and made loans
easily available from state-owned banks.
For now, thanks in part to the intervention, the world economy is
improving. The International Monetary Fund expects global growth to rise
to 3.6 percent in 2014 from 2.9 percent this year.
The improvement "does not mean that a sustainable recovery is on firm
footing," Angel Gurria, secretary-general of the Organization for
Economic Cooperation and Development, warned last month. He said major
economies will need stimulus from "extraordinary monetary policies" to
sustain momentum into 2014. Many economists think stimulus will be
needed even longer.
Yet these policies carry their own risks: Critics, including some of
the Fed's own policymakers, note that the cash the central banks are
pumping into the global financial system flows into stocks, bonds and
commodities like oil. Their prices can escalate to unsustainable levels
and raise the risks of a market crash.
Other analysts warn that the easy-money policies could cause runaway inflation in the future.
Here's a look at how the world's major economies are faring:
UNITED STATES
The U.S. economy grew at an unexpectedly solid 2.8 percent annual
pace from July through September, though consumers and businesses slowed
their spending. And U.S. employers added a surprising strong 204,000
jobs in October.
The Fed has been debating whether hiring is healthy enough to justify
slowing its monthly bond purchases. Despite the solid October jobs
report, most economists think the Fed won't reduce its bond buying
before early next year.
Janet Yellen, who faces a confirming hearing this week for her
nomination to lead the Fed starting in January, is expected to sustain
its low-rate policies.
Even at reduced levels, the bond purchases would continue to
stimulate the economy by adding money to the financial system and
lowering loans rates to encourage borrowing and spending. The Fed's
purchases have helped offset U.S. government spending cuts.
Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Global Insight, thinks the
U.S. economy will be strong enough to manage without any help from Fed
bond purchases by the end of 2014. He sees the Fed raising short-term
rates, which it's kept at a record low near zero since late 2008,
sometime in 2015.
But weaning the U.S. economy off Fed support, he says, is "tricky ...
If you do it too slowly, you could ignite inflation. If you do it too
quickly, you run the risk of killing the recovery."
EUROPE
After enduring two recessions since 2009, the 17 countries that use
the euro currency are expected to eke out their second straight quarter
of growth from July through September. But many economists say the
eurozone's growth might not meet even the feeble 0.3 percent quarterly
pace achieved from April through June. The latest quarterly figure will
be announced Thursday.
The European Central Bank surprised investors last week by cutting
its benchmark refinancing rate to a record 0.25 percent. It acted after
economic reports exposed the weakness of the recovery. Inflation last
month was a scant 0.7 percent. That raised the risk of deflation a
prolonged drop in wages, prices and the value of assets like stocks and
homes.
The rate cut "signals that the ECB is not prepared to accept the risk
that the euro area falls into deflation," says Jacob Kirkegaard, senior
fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
"Once prices begin to fall, you start to see consumers and businesses
change their behavior," Kirkegaard says. "Why should you buy a car today
if the price of the car is going to fall tomorrow? Falling into the
trap can be very difficult to get out of."
JAPAN
Japan's economic recovery has gained momentum since Prime Minister
Shinzo Abe took office in late 2012. Under "Abenomics," the government
and central bank have injected money into the economy through stimulus
spending and rate cutting. The economy grew at a robust 3.8 percent
annual rate from April through June.
But economists worry about whether the recovery can be sustained and
whether Japan can grow enough to make up in tax revenue what it's
spending on stimulus.
Noriko Hama, a professor at Kyoto's Doshisha University, contends
that only higher wages and rates will give people the income and
confidence they need to spend more and restore the economy's health.
Like the Fed, the Bank of Japan could struggle with how to time and
carry out a reversal of its easy money policy once the economy improves
or if inflation or asset bubbles emerge as a threat.
"They have placed themselves in a very difficult situation indeed," Hama says. "It's a double-edged sword."
CHINA
China's economy grew at a two-decade low of 7.5 percent in the three
months that ended in June compared with a year earlier. That's still a
vigorous pace compared with the developed economies of Europe, the
United States and Japan. But for China, it marked a slowdown, and
Beijing launched a mini-stimulus program, spending on railway
construction and other public works.
It worked: Growth edged up to 7.8 percent from July through September from a year earlier.
Yet some economists doubt the gains in China will last.
"I can't see the rebound lasting for very much longer, because it has
been driven by government projects," says Mark Williams of Capital
Economics.
In the latest quarter, more than half the reported growth was due to
investment, not trade or consumption. Many economists say China's
continued reliance on government-led investment is dangerous. It
threatens to produce factories that make goods no one wants and unneeded
real estate developments that can't repay loans.
China responded to the 2008 global crisis by ordering its banks to
open their lending spigots. The recovery has been underpinned by a surge
in borrowing, which is up 20 percent this year.
China's central bank has warned that the aggressive lending is unsustainable and could cause bad loans to pile up dangerously.
"I think we're going to see policymakers try to crack down on credit in the next few months," Williams says.